On Facebook IPO Day, Twitter Sentiment Correlated With Share Price


Twitter users who participated in a crowdsourced prediction for Facebook’s IPO day closing price collectively missed the mark, but another analysis suggests that changes in Twitter sentiment accurately predicted how Facebook’s share price turned throughout the day.

The crowdsourced prediction was inspired by a tweet from investor Chris Sacca, in which he wondered if a crowd could accurately predict the closing price of Facebook during its first day of trading. Programmer James Proud put up a website called Facebookipodayclosingprice.com to find out. He accepted 2,261 predictions from anyone who wanted to make one.

The result? Submissions, solicited mostly via Twitter, predicted on average that Facebook’s stock price would soar from the opening price of $38 to $54.

The reality? Facebook’s stock gained a measly $0.23 during its first day of trading.

Only 26 people correctly predicted that Facebook’s stock would close at about $38, and crowdsourced predictions unsurprisingly gained no clout as tools for predicting stock prices as a result of the experiment.

Another analysis, however, says that Twitter sentiment correlated with how the price turned throughout the day.

In an examination of tweets that were published Friday related to the Facebook IPO, Social media data firm DataSift found that every time the volume of negative comments increased, Facebook’s share price dropped within 20 minutes. Conversely, when positive sentiment increased, the share price rose within a short timeframe.

But don’t start basing your trading decisions on Twitter sentiment just yet.

Though the analysis is not the first to find a link between Twitter data and stock price, its authors aren’t willing to call it any more than “an interesting correlation between Twitter sentiment and stock price fluctuations.”

Image courtesy of iStockphoto, blackred

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7 Hot Startup Tips for Raising a Killer Seed Round


Mashable’s new video series, Behind the Launch, follows Vungle on its startup journey toward a June launch. Each week on Mashable, the Vungle team offers tips and lessons learned from its own startup experience. This week, we saw Vungle court big-name investors, so co-founder and CEO Zain Jaffer offer tips for courting investors. Watch the episode above, and be sure to tune in to Behind the Launch every Monday and Wednesday.


There are many stories of hot startups raising killer seed rounds, and it can feel like money is flowing everywhere. Times might be good right now, but raising external capital is a complicated process, and it’s something every entrepreneur needs to think about carefully. Here are tips that can help you achieve your goals as quickly and pain-free as possible.


1. Be Hungry




As Steve Jobs said, “Stay hungry.”

The first thing that will lead you to success in fundraising (and anything in life) is hunger. The moment you get complacent, the game is over. Naturally, most entrepreneurs are hungry because they have little money, but once things start to look good and investors start showing interest, there is a tendency for entrepreneurs to get excited and celebrate prematurely. The deal isn’t closed until the money hits the bank, so stay hungry.


2. Adjust Your Mindset


Change your mindset when thinking about investors — they are not evil opponents who are out to destroy your business. Instead, think of investors as partners for life, who will continue to back you in subsequent ventures. Changing your perspective will mean you will treat potential investors with respect, and will naturally focus on the value-add they bring beyond just finance.


Missed earlier episodes? Watch them here!



3. Have Integrity


You need to have integrity in everything you do. When you pitch an investor, make sure you are honest but firm. Investors expect you to learn quickly but don’t expect you to have all the right answers. So if you’re asked a question and you don’t know the answer, don’t make up something or deflect the question. Investors are quite measured with the questions they ask, and they’ll quickly detect that you don’t know what you’re talking about.


4. Maintain Confidentiality


When an investor asks who else you are pitching to, don’t disclose names without permission — this puts you in an awkward position. It signals to investors that you can’t maintain confidentiality, but also harms your negotiating position, as investors may collude in hopes of getting a better deal.


5. Have a Big Vision


Investors are mandated to invest in high-growth businesses with multi-billion dollar potential. So make sure you clearly articulate your big vision and where you want to be in the longer term. Nothing turns off investors more than entrepreneurs who think small.


6. Target a Big Market


Investors put a lot of focus on funding startups in high-growth and emerging markets. You need to be able show investors that the market you are targeting has the potential to be worth billions of dollars. More importantly, you need to show you understand the key trends that make a market big. It also helps to try and quantify the size of a market — even though it may seem useless, it will lead you to appreciate the key factors that drive the value of a market.


7. Know How to Frame the Product


You’ll be surprised to find that few investors will test your product (especially at the seed stage), so it’s important to speak about your product on a higher level. Always stress the benefits about how your product solves a key problem, rather than getting caught up in the details of features. Remember: Investors don’t invest in features, they invest in real businesses.

Image courtesy of iStockphoto/tumpikuja

More About: Behind the Launch Series, contributor, features, fundraising, investors, mashable, Startups, Tech, trending, Vungle

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9 Top Comments on Mashable This Week


The Mashable community engaged in a variety of articles this week, resulting in solid discussions and debates in the comments.

Topics that sparked conversation included a new MacBook Pro rumor, an Avengers adoption joke, as well as the long-awaited Facebook IPO.

One commenter, KiTTGT, wrote how a slim profile and Retina display on the next MacBook Pro could be limiting, depending on the features. On a different story, Alex Elman, showed great interest in the Teachers Pay Teachers platform by commenting with a strong opinion to oppose lesson plan sharing for teachers.

Other readers took a liking to Facebook’s IPO, which is the second largest ever in the U.S., next to that of Visa. Esteban Contreras gave his opinion on the acquisitions Facebook made prior to its IPO, such as Instagram and Glancee.

At Mashable, we’re always on the lookout for thoughtful, insightful comments that add to our stories or further the discussion. Take a look at this week’s top comments and let us know what you think of the readers’ opinions.


Foursquare Friend Requests




Mashable asked people in the Get Glue community if they friend people on Foursquare they don't know. They responded with great comments and insights on how they use Foursquare. Comment originally seen on: Mashable's Get Glue Page

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If you haven’t commented on a Mashable article before, check out Mashable Follow, our content curation and social tool, as well as our comment guidelines to learn more. We’d love for you to join the conversation.

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SpaceX’s Historic Launch Aborted at Last Second [VIDEO]

When the countdown to its launch ended early Saturday morning, Dragon, the first private spacecraft to ever attempt docking with the international space station, did not take off.

“Early data indicates that the flight computer detected slightly high combustion chamber pressure on engine 5, which prompted the computer to abort the countdown,” wrote Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), the spaceflight company that attempted the launch, in a statement.

To put the unmanned Dragon into an orbit where it can dock with the international space station, SpaceX must launch it within a narrow timeframe. As soon as its computers automatically shut down the launch, the optimal one-second window had passed and there was no opportunity for another attempt. The next opportunity for a launch attempt is on Tuesday, according to NASA.

SpaceX has a $1.6 billion commercial contract to deliver supplies to the station. Its latest attempted mission was intended to test whether the Dragon can successfully dock there. A previous test flight in 2010 successfully launched the dragon and recovered it from orbit.

Officials at the company had made efforts to play down expectations before Saturday’s launch — predicting just a slightly greater than 50-50 chance of launching, according to the Wall Street Journal.

More About: space, SpaceX, trending


Why Social Learning Benefits Your Business


This post originally appeared on the American Express OPEN Forum, where Mashable regularly contributes articles about leveraging social media and technology in small business.

Classroom training isn’t dead, but it also isn’t the answer for every training need. Social tools are changing the game when it comes to employee learning. Organizations can create collaborative workplaces where employees can learn from each other instead of only learning in a formal setting or from the proverbial “company expert.”

For training programs to be effective, companies must use the right methods and medium for their training sessions and their audience. Given the popularity of social media, it only seems logical to explore how social media tools can have a positive impact on the learning experience.


What It Means


Tony Bingham, president and CEO of the American Society for Training and Development (ASTD), defines social learning as “learning that happens outside a formal structure or classroom and is really the way people have always learned from each other. Social learning centers on information sharing, collaboration and co-creation.”

While the practice of social learning has been around for ages, we need a better definition of it for today’s workplace. Most of us have a vision for what formal classroom training looks like, so here’s one way to view the basic difference between informal learning and social learning:

  • Informal learning is a term used to describe anything not learned in a formal program or class. It can take place within groups or alone using activities such as reading or search.
  • Social learning is learning with and from others. It happens at conferences, cafes or online — with or without social media tools.

In the book Social Media at Work, written by Arthur L. Jue, Jackie Alcalde Marr and Mary Ellen Kassotakis, the authors share case studies of companies using social and informal learning for business success. For example, Oracle uses a key tool called Connect to give employees the information they need at the moment they need it. The tool is about more than just answering questions -– it’s teaching people how to make smart decisions about the business.

One thing is certain about social learning: It’s not a replacement for traditional classroom training. “There will always be some kinds of training that must be done in a classroom setting because of the requirements of the training or skill mastery demands,” Bingham explains. “Examples include certification, compliance, and deep learning -– this is happening in the classroom.”


Social Learning Benefits


Surveys of CEOs continue to report that recruiting and developing talent are their top concerns. In addition, ASTD Research notes that by 2020, nearly half (46%) of all U.S. workers will be Millennials.

Organizations have to gain an understanding of how a new generation of workers likes to learn, how they use technology and their preferred means of communication. This will be essential in creating training curriculum, development programs and succession plans.

Bingham says it’s possible to calculate the return on social learning, but it’s not the traditional return-on-investment (ROI) formula: “It requires alignment to what’s important to the organization, and often that includes retaining institutional knowledge, solving complex problems collaboratively and attracting people to your organization.”

Maria Ogneva, director of community at Yammer, says, “If your goal is to increase customer satisfaction, perhaps the impact metric you are looking for is the increase of speed of a response to a customer, and how collaboration helps you do that. For any social effort to be successful, it has to tie to a business objective.”


Barriers to Social Learning


Business leaders need to realize that employees are already using social tools -– whether it’s approved or not. Instead of prohibiting the use of social media, savvy business leaders should harness its power to drive business results. Bingham notes, “It’s important to make the distinction between a management problem and a technology problem. Most often, problems that occur with the use of social media are management problems.”

Bingham adds that he sees a concern that the use of social media tools may compromise proprietary informaion, or that issues related to intellectual property, company secrets or business strategy may be divulged by a workforce given social media tools. His recommendation?

“Organizations should have an intellectual property policy in place that outlines clear expectations -– and consequences for inappropriate activity. This policy should consider the multitude of possibilities for the use of an organization’s intellectual property.”

Once guidelines are in place, clearly communicate those throughout the entire organization. The goal isn’t to create obstacles to learning but a respectful, effective means to using social tools.


Implementing Social Learning within Your Organization


Before rolling-out a social learning strategy, take a good look at your company culture. Determine if the company is ready to incorporate social learning into its training and development strategy. Adding social just because it sounds cool isn’t productive for the workforce.

Any time a company is testing the new territory, it’s beneficial to start small. Find a program or an initiative that would be well-served by employing social technologies and let the people involved with it experiment and find what works. “Social learning has an organic nature to it, it can’t be forced,” Bingham says.

After using a new technology, evaluate the success of the program. Get feedback on three levels:

  • From the participants who used the social tool. How did it help or hinder the learning experience?
  • From the administrators of the social tool. Was it easy or difficult to use, explain to others and get participant involvement?
  • From the management team. What was their perception of the results gained from using a social tool within their work teams?

This feedback will help refine the best social learning methods to incorporate for future activities.

Social media platforms will continue to develop and evolve. More and more individuals will start using them for their personal brands and professional lives. Employees will demand simplicity and expect workplace training to incorporate the tools they use on a regular basis.

Would you like to see more social in your training programs? Leave your thoughts in the comments.


More Small Business Resources From OPEN Forum:

- Should Small Businesses Follow Everyone Back on Twitter?
- Are You Falling into the Pricing Trap?
- How to Take Your PR Pitches to the Next Level

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Ebay a Hassle? Check Out This Platform for Secondhand Fashion


The Spark of Genius Series highlights a unique feature of startups and is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark. If you would like to have your startup considered for inclusion, please see the details here.

Name: Threadflip

Quick Pitch: Buy and sell pre-owned clothing and accessories.

Genius Idea: More convenient and personal than selling on eBay.

Copious, 99dresses, Fashionlend, Nearly Newlywed, Poshmark: there’s been a proliferation of web and mobile-based channels for selling pre-owned clothing and accessories as of late. These businesses are aiming to carve a slice out of an area long dominated by the likes of eBay, Etsy and local consignment shops.

Threadflip, a San Francisco-based company that launched with $1.6 million in seed funding last month, is among the latest of these.

Like its competitors, Threadflip lets you buy and sell secondhand fashion goods. Where it differs is in its level of service. Threadflip provides an end-to-end shipping solution that saves sellers laborious trips to the post office. The company also offers a “white glove service” for sellers who want to be less involved: simply send your items, and the company will do the photographing, listing and shipping for you.

You’ll be charged a 15% transaction fee if you do your own listing. For white glove service, you’ll have to fork over between 40% and 50% of the selling price.

Threadflip has done a good job of making the site feel human and personal. Buyers and sellers are identified not by anonymous usernames, but by their Facebook profiles, which creates a greater sense of transparency and trust between parties. The site also profiles various sellers — many who are, seemingly, fashion bloggers — inviting you to explore their wares as if you were inside a boutique of their own design. That format also encourages users to spend more time browsing and exploring — rather than searching — for goods, making it more likely that they’ll buy something they didn’t know they wanted.

What’s next? Founder and CEO Manik Singh says the startup is focused on building out support for its white glove service, and preparing to release its iOS app. After iOS, Android is next on the road map.


Series Supported by Microsoft BizSpark


Microsoft BizSpark

The Spark of Genius Series highlights a unique feature of startups and is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark, a startup program that gives you three-year access to the latest Microsoft development tools, as well as connecting you to a nationwide network of investors and incubators. There are no upfront costs, so if your business is privately owned, less than three years old, and generates less than U.S.$1 million in annual revenue, you can sign up today.

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English Premier League: The Social Media Season


The English Premier League is arguably the world’s most popular sports organization, and this season saw explosive growth off the pitch in the realm of social media.

Manchester City snagged its first English title in 44 years last weekend to cap off another dramatic EPL season. To recap how the league developed digitally this year, Mashable hunted down some stats. We also consulted Sean Walsh, whose blog Digital Football is a leading source on the intersection between English soccer and social media.

“EPL clubs have been criticized in the past for their out-of-date approach to social media in comparison to the youthful and creative tactics employed by U.S. franchises in the NBA and NFL,” Walsh, who’s interviewed the digital directors of several top European clubs over the past year, told Mashable in an email. “But the 2011-2012 season has seen the rise of social media in ‘the beautiful game,’ and Premier League clubs have finally begun to invest in it.”

Walsh says EPL clubs added a total of more than 17 million Facebook fans over the course of the season. In total, the league has almost 60 million Facebook likes — all the more impressive when you consider England’s total population is just over 50 million people.

So far, both the league and its individual teams have a much stronger presence on Facebook than on Twitter, where clubs count a combined following of less than 4.5 million. But the EPL’s presence is growing rapidly on Twitter as well as Facebook — Walsh counts a 126% increase in followers league-wide since last season.

SEE ALSO: How Social Media Is Changing Sports [INFOGRAPHIC]

Premier League side Chelsea was also involved in a piece of Twitter history recently. Its win over FC Barcelona in last month’s Champions League semifinal set a Twitter sports record of 13,684 tweets per second, eclipsing the previous record set by the most recent Super Bowl. Chelsea takes on Bayern Munich in the Champions League final this Saturday, so we’ll see if it can make Twitter history again.

Liverpool, meanwhile, became the first Premier League team to promote itself using Pinterest. The team stocked boards with historic photos, fan gear, old uniformas and memorabilia. Pinterest has become one of the newest ways sports teams around the world are seeking to leverage social media.

Among Walsh’s favorite individual digital EPL moments this year: Manchester City launching a YouTube partnership taking steps toward integrating fans’ in-person and social media experiences; Queens Park Rangers owner Tony Fernandes using Twitter to ask fans which players they wanted the club to acquire; and midfielder Joey Barton using promoted tweets to apologize to fans for being thrown out of a match.

How do you think English soccer stacks up to other pro sports in leveraging social media? Let us know in the comments.

Image courtesy toksuede, Flickr.

More About: Facebook, sports, Twitter

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Hey Space Geeks: Help This Guy Build a Real Starship Enterprise [VIDEO]

There are those who look up at the stars and decide to become astronomers, while others want to be astronauts. Then there are those who want to build the Starship Enterprise.

That’s right, a guy known only as BTE Dan (stands for Build the Enterprise) believes a replica of the iconic Star Trek spacecraft can be built to scale within the next 20 years. He’s even started a website — BuildTheEnterprise.org — to rally support for the cause.

“This Gen1 Enterprise can go on missions to key points of interest in our solar system, like Mars and Venus,” Dan writes. “It will be the biggest ship of any kind ever built by humans, and it will be larger than the tallest building in the world.

“It’s possible to build the Enterprise, and it would be a monumental achievement for us humans who inhabit the planet earth.”

TBE Dan’s site covers pretty much all the bases, with detailed specs including size (3,150 feet), maximum capacity (1,000 people) and hull design (triple walls at all points). The site also presents a white paper on how the Enterprise could be used to help build bases on Mars and the moon, a process that would involve “laser diggers,” a modified gravity wheel and a nuclear reactor.

SEE ALSO: How One Actor Used an iPhone to Land a Role in the ‘Star Trek’ Sequel [VIDEO]

The Enterprise would be built entirely in space, Dan says, and “will cost no more than $1 trillion spent over twenty years.” A lengthy chart shows where that trillion bucks would go. He argues the United States should set aside 0.27% of its GDP each year to fund the project.

It would be easy to dismiss Dan as some Trekkie living in his mother’s basement. But you shouldn’t. According to his site bio, the man has spent the past 30 years working as a systems engineer and electrical engineer for a Fortune 500 tech company.

So how can you help in his quest to build a real Starship Enterprise?

“It’s by simply doing this,” Dan writes. “Tell someone about the ideas on this website. This matters because the only hope for building the 1st generation USS Enterprise will ultimately depend on an enthusiastic core of people who are encouraging the undertaking.

“Enthusiasm for an idea can become contagious.”

Do you think it’s possible to build an actual Starship Enterprise within 20 years? Let us know in the comments.

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Facebook’s IPO: Who Got Rich


Mark Zuckerberg




Zuck, who owns 503.6 million shares, is now worth $19.14 billion, though his personal fortune surpassed the $20 billion mark several times.

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OK, so Facebook’s IPO may have seemed like a lot of sound and fury for 23 cents, but there will still doubtlessly be some celebrating in Menlo Park Friday night.

That’s because a lot of Facebookers got fabulously rich on Friday. True, it probably would have been an even more festive occasion if the stock had hit the $54 that Twitter had predicted, but Facebook’s measly gain on its first day of trading was still worth $115.7 million to Mark Zuckerberg.

Here’s why Zuck and some other big Facebook investors still have cause to pop the Champagne.

Image courtesy of iStockphoto, AUDINDesign

More About: bono, Facebook, facebook ipo, Greylock partners, mark zuckerberg, sean parker


How to Watch the SpaceX Launch Online

Private spaceflight company SpaceX is scheduled to fly its Dragon capsule toward the International Space Station early on Saturday, marking the first time ever a privately built spacecraft will dock at the habitable artificial satellite. But if you’re not near Florida’s Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and don’t want to miss the launch, there are still a handful of ways you can watch the historic event live.

The Dragon capsule — which will be attached to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket — will lift off at 4:55 a.m. ET and take about 10 minutes to reach Earth’s lower orbit. It will then spend a few days in space, carrying out a series of tests, before making its way to the International Space Station to deliver and retrieve supplies.

SEE ALSO: 7 Things You Need to Know About Saturday’s SpaceX Launch

If you’re up to the challenge of waking up early or going to bed late, a livestream of the 4:55 a.m. launch will be available at SpaceX.com/Webcast. It will begin with pre-launch coverage at 4:15 a.m. ET.

NASA will be livestreaming the event as well, with a pre-show starting at 3:30 a.m. It will also be broadcast on NASA TV and is scheduled to play again at 5:25 a.m. A press conference is scheduled for a few hours after the launch, at 8:30 a.m.

To follow along with social media, SpaceX is encouraging fans to follow the company via Twitter at @SpaceX, with the hashtag #DragonLaunch. It will also post updates on its Facebook page.


In addition to looking for updates from NASA on Twitter by following @NASA, SpaceX founder Elon Musk (@ElonMusk) has been tweeting updates and pictures about the status of the rocket and capsule.

If there is another delay and the capsule doesn’t launch (possibly due to inclement weather) SpaceX will try again on Tuesday, May 22. (The original launch date was pushed back nearly four weeks after the capsule was originally scheduled to soar into space, but more time was needed to work on Dragon’s docking software). The good news is that the forecast is looking good for Saturday morning.

Will you be waking up (or staying up) to watch the event? How will you be following along? Let us know in the comments.

More About: elon musk, SpaceX